Facts vs. Feelings: Draft or pass on Kyler Murray, Puka Nacua and five others

Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion pushes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions even when the data suggest otherwise. Each week during the 2024 NFL season, Liz Loza will attempt to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.

Do you ever chat with people on airplanes? Not just the “excuse me, I think you’re sitting on my seatbelt” or “here ya go” while passing pretzels across the aisle. I mean have a real conversation with the stranger similarly trapped beside you at 30,000 feet in the air. The kind of back-and-forth where you end up hearing about their lives and maybe even exchanging Instagram handles, which seems lovely in the moment but gets a little weird when you’re still watching Lauren from Maryland’s stories two years later.

I don’t do it often, but every once in a while, I get deep with a fellow flier. Like last February, when I met a woman named Haylee when I was flying back from Bristol. She happened to be reading a book that I had just ordered as part of my offseason to-do list. I’ve gotten into the habit of making these kinds of agendas in an attempt to catch up on all of the non-football culture that falls by the wayside from August through January. Some people have New Year’s resolutions. I’ve got “rediscover my soul” directives.

Haylee and I began talking about life and goals and flow and balance. I was struck by her chill. The ease with which she communicated suggested that she existed in a constant state of contented calm. Like the kind of person who could handle curve balls and speed bumps with tactful nonchalance, never ruffled, but also not implacable. That’s not me. I mean, I’m aces in a crisis, certainly. But there’s no swag to my swerve. The vibe is more hyper-focused first-born daughter saving the world with a smile (and by smile, I mean clenched jaw).

People like Haylee fascinate me. They simply allow life to unfold. Not in a lazy way. Their approach, instead, feels more staying open to and curious about what tomorrow may bring. I’ve always wanted to be like that. And I’m finally in a life space where I can start incorporating more “lean back” energy into my choices. So, in the throes of this unexpectedly inspiring conversation, I found myself (with type-A aplomb) strategizing a Zen Girl Spring. And then — because the universe has a fantastic sense of humor — Haylee asked me if I had any hobbies.

What?! Hobbies? I’m a full-time working parent of two elementary school-aged children. We don’t have hobbies. Unless you count folding laundry and doom scrolling before bed. And then I made two hefty realizations: 1) A hobby doesn’t have to be a job and 2) My job is most people’s hobby.

I am so grateful for No. 2 that No. 1 never occurred to me. Somewhere amidst all the planning and pushing and projecting, the idea of playing at a pastime for no reason other than the fun it … evaporated. That’s kind of sad. There’s no harm in dabbling. In fact, that’s where we discover joy.

Ironically, I stumbled upon the below post shortly after meeting Haylee.

normalize being bad at your hobby!!!! normalize doing something just because you like it!!! normalize doing something that you’re absolutely garbage at but makes you happy!!! 😁😁😁

— kyra (@kyrakiya) June 6, 2024

“Normalize being bad at your hobby. Normalize doing something just because you like it. Normalize doing something that you’re absolutely garbage at but makes you happy.”

It inspired me — in unbridled millennial fashion — to take up gardening. As it turns out, a green thumb I do not have. Yet, each morning I check on my tomato plants, flipping over their tender leaves. Sometimes I scold the squirrels for digging up the basil. Just yesterday I squealed at the size of my jalapenos, excited for the spicy margs I’m going to serve over Labor Day weekend. I do this even though the celery wilted seemingly overnight and the cucumbers have yet to flower. I am not a good gardener. And I do not care.

It can be the same for fantasy. We all want to win, of course. But the odds are not in our favor. Regardless, each year we review data, consider changing circumstances and fearlessly plant flags. While bringing home hardware is the chief objective, nailing a sleeper or dodging a bust can also be pretty darn satisfying. I personally enjoy the detective work of the game. Analyzing the ins and outs of the Texans receiving corps before coming to a confident and cogent decision, for example. Embracing the unknown of a draft is additionally elating. No matter the number of mocks, everyone gets sniped and most folks still walk away with gifts.

This letting go and embracing the messy is what keeps the butterflies in our tummies. If those go away then so does the delight of winning. Facts are essential to the process. But feelings keep us coming back for more.

The below players are ones that have twisted up my insides — either because they seem like incredible values or because their ADPs are confusingly high. I’ve dug into the numbers and inspected their situations, attempting to provide clarity for myself and fellow drafters. I can’t promise you they’ll all hit. However, I do know the ride ahead will be anything but boring.

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals: Recency bias is a heck of a drug, and Murray’s ADP is evidence of its potency. The 27-year-old managed top-12 positional numbers in six of eight games played last season, including each of the final three contests. He additionally racked up 244 total rushing yards (QB13) whilst averaging 30.5 rushing yards per effort, despite missing the first nine weeks of 2023. A player who has averaged over 30 rushing yards per game for the entirety of his four-year career, Murray offers fantasy managers a plethora of prize-worthy production.

Truthfully, it could be argued that rushing is all that matters at the quarterback position. In fact, three of the top four rushing QBs (Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen) finished inside the top 5 overall. Murray’s arm may have been rusty last year, but his prowess as a passer figures to improve this go-around. Not only is he a year and a half removed from the ACL that upended his 2022 campaign, but the Cardinals have also upgraded his stable of pass catchers. The additions of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Zay Jones (after he serves a five-game suspension) provide depth beyond Trey McBride, Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch. These upgrades figure to help Murray clear 3,500 passing yards and return to early-career (and potentially top-five) form.

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Finishing as the RB2 in carries (16 per game) and the RB4 in catches (3.8 per game), White ate in 2023. Buoyed by enviable volume, he closed out the year as fantasy’s RB4 overall. The Bucs’ primary ball carrier was an ultra-efficient receiver (8.6 YPR, RB5). As a rusher, however, his efforts weren’t nearly as impressive, as he registered an alarming 3.6 YPC (RB36) and 1.66 yards after contact (RB37). After handling such a hefty workload, it’s unlikely that White’s efficiency will improve in 2024.

The addition of fourth-round selection Bucky Irving — who registered 4 catches per game and nearly 30 receiving yards per effort at Oregon in 2023 — figures to cut into White’s touches. Irving has acquitted himself well over the preseason, impressing in new OC Liam Coen’s offense. With Irving likely to make his presence felt on White’s most productive opportunities, the vet’s fantasy stock is on the decline. Consider White more of an RB2 than an RB1 for fantasy purposes in 2024.

Jaylen Wright, RB, Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel has a type and Wright sure fits the bill. A former state champion sprinter with speed (4.38) and burst scores above the 95th percentile, Wright led Tennessee in rushing yards each of the past two seasons. Averaging 7.4 yards per rush in 2023 while additionally racking up three TDs of 70-plus yards since 2022, the 21-year-old has shined as a perennial FBS producer.

Those quicks figure to come in handy on a squad that knows how to maximize acceleration. Interestingly, the Dolphins logged the most offensive touches of at least 20 MPH (30) last season. Noting De’Von Achane’s durability concerns (he missed six games over his rookie campaign) and given that Raheem Mostert is entering his 32 season, Wright presents with elite backup appeal. His solid preseason showing (55 yards and a score over 10 carries in preliminary action) has elevated his ADP, but the rookie remains a high-ceiling dart throw in the 14th rounds of 12-team exercises.

Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams: The seemingly out-of-nowhere heroics displayed by Nacua last year feel destined for regression. He couldn’t possibly replace Matthew Stafford’s former No. 1 target and BFF, right? Curiously, the facts suggest that a healthy Cooper Kupp won’t exactly be supplanted, but that Nacua should endure as the Rams’ primary pass catching priority.

Over the 12 games in which Nacua and Kupp shared the field, Nacua tallied more targets (102 to 97), catches (62 to 59) and receiving yards (944 to 737). Nacua additionally registered a deeper aDOT (8.91) and drew a higher number of end zone looks (11). It’s worth noting that Kupp still managed a healthy 5 catches and 60 yards per game, suggesting a floor of 11 PPR fantasy points per game (before factoring in any scores). Even if Nacua were to slip the No. 2 spot, the robust nature of Sean McVay’s offense provides the second-year receiver with easy top-30 appeal. His upside is baked into his ADP at 16.2 (WR8), but with so much value at the position available later in drafts the risk of missing is heartily mitigated.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders: Speaking of late-round value, McLaurin’s ADP is more cringe than the list of signal callers he’s been saddled with. Despite being attached to the mid-est of mid QBs, the former Buckeye has (miraculously) registered 70-plus catches and cleared 1,000 receiving yards in each of the past four seasons (becoming just one of five players to achieve such an accomplishment). A sterling route runner, McLaurin managed to be wide-open on 16% of his targets last season (highest percentage of his career).

With Kliff Kingsbury holding the clipboard and Jayden Daniels captaining the offense, the 28-year-old figures to improve (or at the very least replicate) his numbers from last year. McLaurin closed out last year as fantasy’s WR29 overall. Yet, he’s currently the 34th WR coming off of draft boards. Interestingly, Mike Clay has McLaurin projected to draw 123 looks (post-Jahan Dotson trade), which is just 9 fewer targets than he managed in 2023. Assuming an uptick in efficiency on essentially the same volume, McLaurin presents with WR2 appeal at a WR3 cost for fantasy purposes.

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars: A glut of rookies not named Marvin Harrison Jr. or Malik Nabers are catching the eye of potential investors between rounds 10 through 12 of drafts. Thomas is listed at the end of this particular tier of rookie wide receivers. While his QB has been relegated to the fantasy dog house, Thomas possesses first-round pedigree and elite measurables.

A former high school basketball standout, the LSU product posted an FBS-high 17 receiving TDs in 2023, the third most in Tigers history behind Ja’Marr Chase (20) and Justin Jefferson (18). More specifically, 12 of those TD grabs came at least 20 yards downfield, which was the most long-range scoring receptions by any FBS player in a season over a decade. So, yeah, he’s pretty good.

With a predilection towards feasting on go routes and fades (Thomas managed 10 TD catches on such assignments last year), he’s also a stellar complement to Christian Kirk. To that end, the absence of Calvin Ridley opens up 136 looks of which Thomas is expected to draw the large majority. On a team with a projected win total of 8.5 (and one that has to face the Texans twice), Thomas’ prowess as a vertical threat figures to be regularly tested. He’s arguably the surest ceiling selection available at WR after pick 130.

Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys: A surplus of sure things didn’t exist at tight end until recently. Ferguson, however, brought reliable retriever energy to the position in 2023. He may not thrill with flashy metrics or huge touchdown totals (though he did record a hat trick in the ‘Boys wild-card loss versus Green Bay), but the 25-year-old emerged as Dak Prescott’s second-favorite target last year. Drawing 23 red zone looks (TE1), Ferguson closed out the season second in team receptions and receiving yards, trailing only CeeDee Lamb.

With zero notable pass catchers added (and Brandin Cooks entering his age 31 season), the Wisconsin product should feast again in 2024. Projected to draw 90+ looks, Ferguson figures to haul in upwards of 70 balls and post around 700 receiving yards. With a floor of 10 PPR fantasy points per game, Ferguson is an ideal late-round candidate for managers content to wait on the position.

Follow Liz on social @LizLoza_FF